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Boxing matched betting guide

This article looks at boxing matched betting. Learn how to find value bets odds on boxing.

Boxing matched betting guide

Boxing betting markets

Boxing has plenty of value betting opportunities. Use OddsChecker and manual odds searches to seek value on various boxing markets.

Let’s discuss some popular boxing betting markets.

Match odds/Winner

This market is for which fighter will win the fight. There are three different outcomes – either fighter to win or a draw. Bookies and exchanges may use different terms such as “Match Odds”, “To win the fight”, or “Winner”.

Anthony Joshua versus Andy Ruiz Jr winner market at Smarkets
Smarkets “Winner” market for Joshua vs Ruiz Jr

Method of victory

Betting on how a fight gets decided. The four main outcomes are points decision, knockout, disqualification, or a draw.

Win by decision/technical decision

Firstly, an explanation of this market, as there are several variables to consider.

  • Win by decision is for a fighter to win on the judges’ scorecards after 12 rounds.
  • Win by technical decision: win on points – if the fight gets stopped due to injury (at least four rounds completed). If four rounds are not completed, the result is a no-contest.

Real-life example

Let’s use the George Groves versus Chris Eubank Jr fight as an example. Oddschecker best price for Groves decision/technical decision was 6/1 (7.0) with Bet365 and Skybet. The lay price on Smarkets is 6.6, so this is an arbitrage opportunity.

Assuming a £10 back bet at 7.0 with the bookie, then a lay bet at 6.6 on the exchange. You can use two matched betting strategies:

  1. LOCK-IN PROFIT: Lay £10.64 at odds of 6.60 (£59.57 liability) on Smarkets to lock-in £0.42 profit per £10 staked. 
  2. UNDERLAY: Or, lay £10.21 at odds of 6.60 (£57.12 liability) on Smarkets. You’ll make £2.88 profit if Groves wins by decision/technical decision.

This shows the profit potential of arbitrage betting on boxing.

‘Method of victory’ markets can also be great for using your free bets. Several bookies were 11/2 (6.5) on Groves to win by decision, with the exchange lay at 6.6.

Win by KO, TKO or DQ

This is for a fighter to win by either:

  • Knockout
  • Referee stoppage – also known as Technical Knockout (TKO)
  • Disqualification

Once again on the Groves versus Eubank fight, Oddschecker best odds for Groves to win by KO/TKO/DQ were 3/1 (4.0). But, the exchange lay price was poor value at 5.0.

Coral betting shops had Groves by KO, TKO or DQ at 11/2 (6.5), with the lay price at 5.0. This looks like an arbitrage opportunity.

But, a word of caution. The 6.50 odds were “out of line” with other bookmaker odds. In this instance, Coral could invoke the “palpable error” rule and void the bet.

So, I staked £5 as a no lay advantage play. At 6.5 to back and 5.0 lay, the expected value (EV) was 130%.

Groves won the fight by points decision. The advantage play bet lost. But we are looking for positive expected value bets that should make long term profit. At 130% EV, your average expected profit would be £3 per £10 stake. Take this measure over at least 1,000 different bets.

In 2017, I did a £5 advantage play on Mikey Garcia to win by KO/TKO/DQ against Dejan Zlaticanin at 22/1 (23.0) in Coral betting shop. Coral’s system tried to settle at the true odds of 11/8 (2.375). But, they settled at odds of 23.00.

Draw or technical draw

Some fights end in a draw. Think the first Canelo Alvarez-Golovkin fight or the unforgettable Wilder-Fury heavyweight clash.

The draw is available at high odds, as most fights end in a win for either fighter.

Round betting markets

You can bet on a fighter to win in a specific round of a fight. For example:

  • Anthony Joshua to win in round 6
  • Andy Ruiz Jr to win in round 7

William Hill offers the best price on round betting for major boxing fights. This can provide arbitrage opportunities online and in shops.

In 2017, William Hill had several arbs on Anthony Joshua versus Wladimir Klitschko. Joshua to win in round 5 was 11.0/8.8. You’ll find these prices available in William Hill shops, so it’s easy to do shop arbitrage betting.

For David Haye versus Tony Bellew in 2017, I arbed Ladbrokes shops betting terminals. Haye to win in round 1 was 11.0/9.2, round 2 at 10.0/9.0 and round 3 at 9.0/8.0.

Grouped round betting

Grouped round betting is another useful market. You’re betting on a fighter to win in say round 7 to 9 (i.e. win in round 7, 8 or 9).

For example, Anthony Joshua to win in rounds 7 to 9 (vs. Klitschko) was an arb on fight night.

Go the distance?

A two-way market. Bet on the fight to either last the distance or not. Based on 12 completed rounds for World title and most championship fights.

Knockdown specials

Here you’re betting on either, both or neither fighter to get knocked to the canvas. The options are:

  • Boxer A to get knocked down
  • Boxer B to be knocked down
  • Both fighters to get knocked down
  • Neither fighter knocked down
  • First round knockdown

Total rounds

A simple over/under two-way betting market. How many rounds will the fight last? For example, betting on under 7.5 or over 7.5.

Summary

It’s always a good idea to look for new matched betting markets.

Sports like boxing are a hidden gem for matched betting and finding value. These markets are less high profile than football and horse racing. So, less likely to be on the radar of bookmakers traders.


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