Boxing matched betting guide
This article looks boxing matched betting. Let’s see how to find value odds on boxing – a sport rarely discussed in matched betting circles.
Boxing betting markets
Boxing is has plenty of value betting opportunities. We can use Oddschecker and manual odds searches to seek value on a variety of boxing markets.
Let’s discuss some of the most popular boxing betting markets.
This is simply which fighter will win the fight. There are three different outcomes – either fighter to win or a draw. Bookies and exchanges may use different terms such as “Match Odds”, “To win the fight”, or simply “Winner”.
Moving on from the fight winner market, you can also bet on how the fight will be won. Will it end in a points decision, knockout, disqualification, or even a draw with no definitive winner.
Win by decision/technical decision
This outcome is found under the “Method of Victory” market. Firstly, an explanation of this market, as there are several variables to consider.
- Win by decision is for a fighter to win on the judges scorecards after 12 rounds.
- Win by technical decision: win on points if the fight is stopped due to injury (minimum 4 rounds completed). If 4 rounds are not completed, the fight is a no-contest.
Real life example
Let’s use the George Groves versus Chris Eubank Jr fight as an example. Oddschecker best price for Groves decision/technical decision was 6/1 (7.00) with Bet365 and Skybet. The lay price on Smarkets is 6.60, so this is an arbitrage opportunity.
With a £10 back bet at 7.00 with the bookie/6.60 to lay on the exchange, you can use two main matched betting strategies:
- a). LOCK-IN PROFIT: Lay £10.64 at Smarkets at odds of 6.60 (£59.57 liability) to lock-in £0.42 profit per £10 staked if fully laying. This is locked-in profit regardless of the result.
- b). UNDERLAY: Alternatively, lay £10.21 at Smarkets at odds of 6.60 (£57.12 liability) for a potential £2.88 profit on a full underlay – if Groves wins by decision/technical decision.
This shows the profit potential of arbitrage betting on boxing.
‘Method of victory’ markets can also be great for using your free bets.
Several bookies were 11/2 (6.50) on Groves to win by decision, with the exchange lay at 6.60. This is a good high-profile selection for a Stake Not Returned free bet.
Win by KO, TKO or DQ
This is for a fighter to win by either:
- Referee stoppage – also known as Technical Knockout (TKO)
Once again on the Groves-Eubank fight, Oddschecker best odds for Groves to win by KO/TKO/DQ was 3/1 (4.00) at 188bet. The lay price was 5.00 on Smarkets, so this is poor value.
However, Coral betting shops had Groves by KO, TKO or DQ at 11/2 (6.50), with the lay price at 5.00. This looks like an arbitrage opportunity.
Howver, a word of caution. Coral shop price is out of line compared to Oddschecker and other bookmakers. Coral could invoke the “palpable error” rule and void the bet.
Therefore, I staked £5 as a no-lay advantage play.
At 6.50(back)/5.00(lay), the expected value was 130%. Ok, so Groves did not win by KO/TKO/DQ this time – but we are looking at long-term positive expected value. At 130% EV, we would expect to make £3 per £10 stake on average over at least 1,000 different bets.
In 2017, I did a £5 advantage play on Mikey Garcia to win by KO/TKO/DQ against Dejan Zlaticanin at 22/1 (23.00) in Coral betting shop. Coral’s system tried to settle at true odds of 11/8 (2.375). However, they did manually settle at odds of 23.00.
Draw or technical draw
Occasionally, some fights end in a draw. Think the first Canelo Alvarez-Golovkin fight, or the unforgettable Wilder-Fury heavweight clash.
The draw is generally priced at fairly high odds, as most fights end with a win for either fighter.
Round betting markets
You can bet on a fighter to win in a specific round of a fight. For example:
- Anthony Joshua to win in round 6
- Andy Ruiz Jr to win in round 7
Bookies such as William Hill offer best price on round betting before big fights. This can provide arbitrage opportunities online and in shops.
Back in 2017, William Hill had several arbs on Anthony Joshua versus Wladimir Klitschko. Joshua to win in round 5 was 11.00/8.80. The same odds are available in William Hill shops, so it’s easy to get on some shop arbitrage bets.
For David Haye versus Tony Bellew in 2017, I arbed Ladbrokes shops self-service betting terminals on Haye to win in round 1 at 11.00/9.20, round 2 at 10.00/9.00 and round 3 at 9.00/8.00.
Grouped round betting
Grouped round betting is another useful market. You’re betting on a fighter to win in say round 7 to 9. (i.e. win in round 7, 8 or 9).
For example, Anthony Joshua to win in rounds 7-9 (vs. Klitschko) was an arb on fight night.
Go the distance?
A two-way market. Bet on the fight to either last the distance or not. For World title and most championship fights this is based on 12 completed rounds.
Here you’re betting on either, both or neither fighter to get knocked to the canvas. The options are:
- Boxer A to be knocked down
- Boxer B to be knocked down
- Both fighters to be knocked down
- Neither fighter to be knocked down
- First round knock down
A simple over/under two-way betting market. How many rounds will the fight last? This is represented by a figure such as under 7.5 and over 7.5.
It’s always a good idea to look for new matched betting markets.
Sports like boxing are a hidden gem for matched betting and finding value. These markets are less high-profile than football and horse racing – and less likely to be on the radar of bookmakers traders.