Paddy Power refund if win football offers
Paddy Power refund if win offer is available on popular matches. We can use matched betting strategies to turn a profit.
Losing bets are refunded as a free bet if a certain outcome happens.
- Refund if Team X wins a football match.
- Refund if Player X scores in a football match.
For example, refund if PSG beat Liverpool. We place a losing correct score bet and PSG win -so we get a free bet refund (up to £10).
Matched bettors can back and lay a selection, then hope for the refund trigger to happen.
Important points for placing your qualifying bets:
- No minimum odds requirements for qualifying bets.
- Maximum refund is £10 per customer for each match.
- First goalscorer, Last goalscorer, Anytime goalscorer, and correct score.
- Offer applies to pre-match bets only.
- Refund if win applies to selected football matches only (check Paddy Power Onside for details).
‘Refund if’ strategy
There are two ways to approach this offer:
1). Not locking in,
2). Or, locking in a profit.
Let’s assume the offer is “Refund if PSG win“.
NO LOCK IN METHOD
This is a back, lay and hope strategy.
Conventional matched betting wisdom suggests a qualifying bet on an outcome where PSG cannot win. However, it’s best to find the closest gap between back and lay odds.
I often back Anytime Goalscorer (even if the player plays for the refund trigger team!), as these tend to be the best qualifying bet odds.
For PSG versus Liverpool, Kylian Mbappe anytime goal scorer was 2.20/2.46.
- a). Place a £10 back bet on Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 6/5 (2.20) with Paddy Power.
- b). Place a £9 lay bet on Kylian Mbappe at 2.46 in the ‘Anytime Goalscorer’ market on Smarkets exchange. Qualifying loss is around £1.
- c). Hope that your qualifying bet loses and PSG win. Hope that Mbappe doesn’t score a goal, but PSG do win.
If your qualifying bet loses and PSG win you’ll get a £10 free bet refund.
In PSG vs Liverpool, Kylian Mbappe didn’t score and PSG won 2-1, so Paddy Power credited a £10 free bet.
This was fortunate because Mbappe might have scored in a PSG win, which wouldn’t have qualified for the refund.
Ideally in this instance, your qualifying bet would be on a different selection in the first/anytime scorer markets – since PSG to win is the refund trigger.
However, on this occasion, the Liverpool goalscorer odds were poor. The goalscorer lay odds can improve in the hour before kick-off. It’s worth checking Betfair Exchange.
“Refund if” offers will not always trigger. The key is to find a minimal loss qualifying bet.
LOCK IN METHOD
Find a qualifying bet with a small gap between back and lay odds. Then you can lock in some profit. For example, a correct score that doesn’t involve PSG winning (draw: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, or a score where Liverpool win).
For the lock in method your qualifying bet needs to lose. So don’t bet on an outcome where PSG can win.
Here’s the lock-in method:
- a). Place a £10 qualifying bet on 1-1 correct score at odds of 13/2 (7.50) at Paddy Power.
- b). Place a lay bet at the exchange: Lay £8.09 on 1-1 at 9.8 on Smarkets for £2.50 loss (2% commission).
- c). Lay £2.90 on PSG at odds of 2.16 at Smarkets.
If PSG win: your qualifying loss is -£5.86 with £10 free bet to come.
If PSG do not win: the outcome is +£0.34 from the qualifying bet.
- The free bet is valid for 7 days after being credited, and can be used on football markets.
- Try to find close back and lay odds to minimise your qualifying loss, as the offer doesn’t always trigger.
- When using the lock in method, ensure your qualifying bet and the refund if trigger cannot both happen.
- For the no lock in method, you can back and lay any selection. Overall, the quickest method is to just back, lay and hope.