Paddy Power ‘refund if win’ offer is available on popular football matches.
This guide will show the matched betting strategy for Paddy Power money back football offers.
Losing bets are refunded (as a free bet) if a certain outcome happens.
- Refund if Team X wins a football match.
- Refund if Player X scores in a football match.
For example, “Refund if PSG beat Liverpool“
Matched bettors can back and lay a selection, then hope for the refund trigger to happen.
If you place a losing correct score bet and PSG win – Paddy Power then credit a free bet refund (up to £10).
Important points for your qualifying bets:
b). Maximum refund is £10 per customer for each match
c). Pre-match bets only
d). Qualifying markets: First goalscorer, Last goalscorer, Anytime goalscorer, and Correct Score.
e). Refund if win applies to selected football matches only (check Paddy Power Onside for details).
‘Refund if’ strategy
There are two ways to approach this offer:
- Not locking in, or
- Locking in a profit.
Let’s assume the offer is “Refund if PSG win” (versus Liverpool)
No lock in method
This is a back, lay and hope strategy.
Ideally, your qualifying bet is for an outcome where PSG cannot win.
However, the key is to find tightly matched back and lay odds.
I often back Anytime Goalscorer (even on a player in the refund trigger team!). This market tends to have good qualifying odds.
For PSG versus Liverpool, Kylian Mbappe anytime goal scorer was 2.2/2.46.
- Place a £10 back bet on Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 6/5 (2.2) with Paddy Power.
- Place a £9 lay bet on Kylian Mbappe at 2.46 in the ‘Anytime Goalscorer’ market on Smarkets exchange. Qualifying loss is around £1.
- Hope that your qualifying bet loses and PSG win (Hope that Mbappe doesn’t score a goal, but PSG do win)
If your qualifying bet loses and PSG win, you’ll receive a £10 free bet refund.
In the match between PSG and Liverpool, Kylian Mbappe didn’t score and PSG won 2-1, so Paddy Power credited a £10 free bet.
This was fortunate because Mbappe might have scored in a PSG win, which wouldn’t have qualified for the refund.
“Refund if” offers will not always trigger. The key is to find a minimal loss qualifying bet.
Lock in method
Find a qualifying bet with a small gap between the back and lay odds. Then you can lock in some profit.
For example, a correct score where PSG cannot win (draw: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, or a score where Liverpool win).
Here’s the lock-in method:
- Place a £10 qualifying bet on 1-1 correct score at odds of 13/2 (7.50) at Paddy Power.
- Place a lay bet at the exchange: Lay £8.09 on 1-1 at 9.8 on Smarkets for £2.50 loss (2% commission).
- Finally, Lay £2.90 on PSG at odds of 2.16 at Smarkets.
If PSG win: your qualifying loss is -£5.86 with £10 free bet to come.
If PSG do not win: the outcome is +£0.34 from the qualifying bet.
Paddy Power money back tips
- Free bet is valid for 7 days after being credited. Use on football markets.
- Try to find close back and lay odds to minimise your qualifying loss, as the offer doesn’t always trigger.
- When using the lock in method, ensure your qualifying bet and the refund if trigger cannot both happen.
- For the no lock in method, you can back and lay any selection. Overall, the quickest method is to just back, lay and hope.
Check out Paddy Power Onside website for details of money back promotions.